What’s The 401?!?!

The Missle That Is Jerod Mayo, NFL Picks Week 11

The one bright spot that everybody is pointing to in the Patriots 34-31 loss to the Jets on Thursday is the play of quarterback Matt Cassel.  Cassel, who’s story everybody knows by now, threw for 400 yards even in what was by far his best performance of the season… and one that, as long as his play doesn’t spiral drastically downward over the remainder of the year, will help make Cassel some big money in the off-season free agent market. 

But… Cassel’s play wasn’t the only bright spot in this game… rookie linebacker Jerod Mayo, who seemingly has gone overlooked by Pats fans all season, was all over the field Thursday night amassing a whopping 20 tackles, 16 of which were solo joints.  The rookie, who plays with a lot of energy and intensity… I thought I saw him channelling some Mike Singletary bug eyes at one point in the game… was seemingly in almost every play, and deserves a lot of kudos for being able to step into the Bill Belichick defensive system and produce right away.  Clearly, his performance against the Jets was his best of the season, but Mayo will only get better.  It definately looks like the Pats found a keeper and ultimately, found the replacement for Tedy Bruschi in Jerod Mayo.  Needless to say, I like the way this kid plays…

On to the picks.  Home team in CAPS.  I had the Pats over the Jets BTW so we’re already starting off this week 0-1.

ATLANTA (-6.5) over Denver
This line moved over a point in Altanta’s favor during the week.  That means that all the money is moving towards an Atlanta team who has been just that… money… at home so far this year.  This line is kind of large for my liking, but I’m going to stick with my original pick with the knowledge that Denver’s defense is atrocious.

MIAMI (-10.5) over Oakland
Jamarcus Russell is rumored to be starting at quarterback for Oakland.  I wonder what the over/under is on the number of sacks for Dolphins’ OLB Joey Porter this week.  Porter has been talking about making a run at Michael Strahan’s sack record… if he’s going to do it… this would be the week to rack up a few.  The Raiders offense is putrid, and Miami has shown that they can score… whether it’s from the wildcat formation or Chad Pennington methodically moving the ball upfield.  Dolphins win this one something like 20-6.

Baltimore (+7) over NY GIANTS
Great match-up here.  The Giants, the NFL’s top running team led by bruising tailback Brandon Jacobs, versus the Ravens, the NFL’s top run defenders led by Hall of Fame middle linebacker Ray Lewis.  This one will be a war.  People are just now getting wise to the Ravens.  This team is good.  Good enough to win?  Not sure, but definately good enough to give the G-Men a scare.

INDIANAPOLIS (-8) over Houston
Sage Rosenfels is back at quarterback for the Texans.  Peyton Manning and the Colts are regaining their stride just in time.  With the Patriots losing on Thursday, are the Colts now back in the playoffs if they can win this game?  I’m not sure what the tiebreakers are, but my guess would be… yes.  Indy’s in with a win.  And just a couple weeks ago everyone was pronouncing this team dead.  It’s too bad they aren’t… honestly.  I sense a romp this week… at which time everybody will start talking about a Manning vs. Manning Super Bowl match-up…. yuck!

Tennessee (-3) over JACKSONVILLE
The Jaguars need this game, and they’re at home… but until the Titans lose, I’m not picking against them.  Jacksonville can’t run the ball, and their o-line is beat up… which means that Albert Haynesworth is foaming at the mouth like a rabid dog.  Titans remain undefeated.

Chicago (+3.5) over GREEN BAY
This is an incredibly important game for both teams.  A Chicago win keeps them in the chase for the NFC Norris title… a loss drops them back into a tie with the Packers for second place and makes things difficult for a team who’s let a few slip away this year.  If the Pack goes down… their season is all but done.  They’d need to run the table to have a chance at the playoffs.  When Orton is in the line-up the Bears are a much more balanced team than the Packers… as Green Bay really struggles to defend the run.  Look for the Bears to play a little bit of clock control, which will keep the game close right up to the end.

Philadelphia (-9) over CINCINNATI
There are two things we’ve learned about the Eagles this year.  They’re not quite an elite team, but they really beat-up on the teams that they’re supposed to beat.  At 1-8 the Bengals are one of those teams.  This one should be over at the half.

New Orleans (-5.5) over KANSAS CITY
I’m tempted to change this pick… as KC has been playing better with Thigpen behind center.  New Orleans can put up points, but they can’t really stop anybody.  As bad as the Chiefs defense has been, they should be able to stay in this game simply because the Saints defense is just as bad.  Plus, the Chiefs are always trouble at Arrowhead.  I’m holding with my pick… but not so confidently.

CAROLINA (-14) over Detroit
As bad as Detroit is I’m still kind of surprised this line isn’t more like 9 or 10… especially after the Panthers laid an egg against the horrendous Raiders last week.  Jake Delhomme was as bad as Daunte Culpepper… maybe worse!  And that was the only game that FOX showed in the New England region.  Wow.  Who’s idea was that?  There’s just no way you can take Detroit on the road right now.  They don’t have a win.  They don’t really have a quarterback.  They might not win a game all year.  Carolina will want to show that last week’s embarassment was a fluke.  I like them to bounce back big time.

Minnesota (+4) over TAMPA BAY
I don’t know what to make of either of these teams right now.  The Bucs have struggled against, but managed to beat, some of the league’s worst teams, and the Vikings have had some dubious luck on their side and somehow find themselves tied for first place in the NFC North.  Plus, Gus Ferrotte is their quarterback.  Parity rears its ugly yet once again.  I haven’t had much luck picking for or against either team all year so that means you…. should take Tampa Bay.

SAN FRANCISCO (-6.5) over St. Louis
The Rams are just fuckin horrible… and they’ll be without Stephen Jackson this week.  Since he’s about the only player on their team that’s worth shit… I’m going with the Niners… who are no prize themselves… but who have been playing a little better lately.  They should have beaten Arizona last week.  Of course, we all know how that turned out.  On another point, it speaks to how bad the Rams are… when a 2-7 team is favored over them by almost a TD.  Really bad…

Arizona (-3) over SEATTLE
Matt Hasselback is back… which means the Seahawks should be more competitive over the last few weeks of the season.  Their problem has been their once solid defense… has been about as solid as pizza dough this year.  I’d be careful here.  We don’t know what Seattle is going to be like now that Hasselback is back, and Arizona showed some cracks last week against the Niners.  Seattle has traditionally been a tough place to play.  This could be an upset special.

PITTSBURGH (-5) over San Diego
I haven’t been impressed by either of these teams so far.  I felt the Steelers were overrated all year, and the Chargers have been underwhelming on defense… and LT is clearly either injured or worse… on the decline of a stellar career.  My opinion… the guy’s toe is hurting him more than he’s letting on.  The Chargers have had trouble stopping anybody and Pittsburgh lost two tough ones… one to the Giants which they should have won, and one to the Colts who look to be bouncing back after a slow start.  The difference in this game?  The Steelers defense is still formidable… and if the Chargers can’t get the run game going… they won’t have a chance on the road. 

Dallas (1.5) over WASHINGTON
The Cowboys will win this game.  They are getting a lot of their guys back from injury… and the Redskins will be without the heart and soul of their offense in back Clinton Portis.  This is a must win game for Dallas.  A loss puts the Cowboys at 5-5 and forces them to all but run the table if they want to have a shot at the playoffs, especially considering that there are three teams, one of whom is Washington, that are already a game up on the Cowboys for the two Wild Card spots.  With Philly playing the Bengals you can almost put them a game up too.  M-U-S-T WIN. 

BUFFALO (-5.5) over Cleveland
The Bills are in a tailspin… but then again, so are the Browns.  The difference is the Bills players aren’t sniping at each other and wondering if the guy alongside of them is taking plays off.  With the Patriots loss, Buffalo is still very much in the thick of the AFC playoff race… which right now is about as muddled as can be.  Cleveland’s season is already over.  Brady Quinn will probably establish himself as the Cleveland quarterback of the future over the course of the year, but that won’t change the Browns’ fortunes.  And Buffalo is tough place to play, especially late in the year.  I look for the Bills to…. what’s that Chris?  circle the wagons…